Where the Big Four see rates going — June 2026

The RBA cash rate sits at 4.35% going into the Reserve Bank's 16 June 2026 meeting, after three increases in the first half of the year. Almost no one expects a move tomorrow — the near-unanimous call is a hold — but the more interesting question is where things go from here. And on that, the Big Four banks are split.

This is general information, not personal financial advice. Rate forecasts change often and the banks revise them as new data lands — treat the figures below as a snapshot of where each bank stood in mid-June 2026, and check the source links for the latest.

The peak camp: CBA, NAB and ANZ

Three of the four majors now think 4.35% is the top of this cycle, with no further hikes and the first cuts not arriving until 2027.

• NAB was the first to call the peak, abandoning its forecast for another rise. It holds 4.35% for the rest of 2026, then pencils in three 25bp cuts in June, September and December 2027, taking the cash rate to 3.60% by the end of next year — the most dovish of the four on the way down.
• CBA holds through 2026 and sees two 25bp cuts in May and August 2027, landing at 3.85% by Q3 2027.
• ANZ also holds, with cuts in September and December 2027 to 3.85% by year-end.

The common thread: a softening economy — rising unemployment and weaker GDP growth — doing the RBA's job from here, so the next move is more likely down than up, just not yet.

The outlier: Westpac

Westpac is alone in still seeing two more hikes, forecasting 25bp rises that would push the cash rate to 4.85% before any cuts come into view. The logic is that inflation is proving stickier than the other banks assume, and the RBA may need to tighten further to be sure of it.

What a 4.35% (or 4.85%) cash rate means for you

Forecasts are a tool for planning, not certainty. The useful move isn't to bet on one bank being right — it's to know how exposed your own budget is either way.

• If you have a mortgage, the gap between the peak camp and Westpac is roughly 0.50% on your rate. On a $700,000 loan that's in the order of ~$200 a month — worth modelling before it happens, not after.
• If you're on a fixed rate rolling off in the next year, the timing of the first cut matters: NAB's mid-2027 path and Westpac's "higher first" path lead to very different refinance windows.
• Savers get the mirror image: a higher-for-longer cash rate keeps term deposit and savings rates elevated, which changes the maths on paying down debt versus saving.

Model it, don't guess it

This is exactly what Bickie is built for. Your mortgage, offset and recurring bills are modelled as dated entries, so you can change the assumed rate and watch the long-run effect on your cash flow — test a hold at 4.35%, a Westpac-style 4.85%, and a 2027 cut down toward 3.60%, and see which ones your budget can absorb comfortably and which ones get tight. A forecast you can stress-test beats a headline you can only worry about.

Whatever the RBA does on the 16th, the rate that matters most is the one your budget is built to survive.

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Sources:

• Expert RBA Cash Rate Predictions — Finder
• Interest Rate Forecast & Predictions for 2026 — Canstar